The Ukraine Crisis Explained In 2 Minutes

What’s the problem?

Too much to say. Ukraine’s fragile economy was all but destroyed by the 2008 financial crash, and by last year, it badly needed a bailout. The question was, would it turn to Russia or to the EU? President Viktor Yanukovych didn’t make himself popular when he rejected a European trade agreement in favour of his old ally Vladimir, and to cut a long story short, the people of Kiev took to the streets.

Why did the protests start?

The EU is popular with the people of Ukraine – for them, it symbolises not only greater prosperity but an antidote to their country’s dependence on Putin’s bullying Russia. Yanukovych himself was a controversial and unpopular character even before he began beating up protestors – he had already been deposed as President after the 2004 election in which his party was found guilty of electoral fraud. In any case, Ukrainians wanted change, and following weeks of police violence, they got it when Yanukovych fled Kiev for Russia on February 21st.

What’s any of this got to do with Russia?

Russia has dominated Ukraine for centuries, and even after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Ukraine’s declaration of independence in 1991, its old masters still hold an enormous amount of influence. Ukraine relies on gas-rich Russia for energy and has been repeatedly held hostage to price increases. Vladimir Putin fears losing influence over the former nations of the USSR, which are major markets for Russian goods. The pro-Russian Yanukovych could be relied on to do as he was told. As Putin sees it, the new government must be beaten into submission.

So why is the attention now on Crimea?

Everything is complicated further by the fact that 30% of Ukraine’s population are ethnic Russians, many of whom feel more loyalty towards Moscow. In the picturesque Crimean peninsula, which was not part of Ukraine until 1954, the figure stands at almost 60%. Russia also maintains a gigantic naval base at the Crimean port of Sebastopol, and therefore already had thousands of troops stationed in the region already. So when a group of pro-Russian militants seized several important buildings in local capital Simferopol, the Ukrainian Revolution became an international problem.

What’s going to happen? And has Russia invaded Crimea?

Not officially, no – the heavily-armed, Russian speaking soldiers who have occupied Crimea are merely ‘local militias,’ according to the Kremlin. Photographic and testimonial evidence, however, suggests otherwise. Whatever the case, the self-appointed new government of the Crimean Republic – they’ve rejected Ukraine – have declared that they want to be re-unified with Russia. Riots between Russians and Ukrainians continue, and nobody has a clue how far Putin is willing to push this crisis – least of all him.

Should we be worried?

This is not the Cuban Missile Crisis we’re talking about – it’s unlikely it will result in more than a trade stand-off. Still, it could result in a massive increase in energy prices (Russia supplies much of Europe with gas) and further instability. Although no longer a superpower, Russia still possesses more nuclear weapons than any country in the world and is still a massive international player – but economic sanctions will hurt Putin far more than they hurt Europe.

By Digby Warde-Aldam

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