All you need to know about the London Mayoral election

With the New Year, the race to decide who will be the next Mayor of London has finally kicked off. Between now and May 5, Londoners will be bombarded with campaign materials and accosted by enthusiastic activists plying for their votes. Here is what you need to know to help you navigate this vaguely important decision.

The candidates have been selected and are now campaigning in earnest. Despite the best efforts of the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats, the London Mayoral election is a two-horse race; with both the Tories and Labour having selected heavy hitters who are pretty evenly matched.

Zac Goldsmith had failed, until this week, to kick start his campaign, giving his opponent a head start and a notional lead, for the moment. Sadiq Khan has increased his lead over Goldsmith by 5 points since November and, according to the latest polling, he is now 10 points clear of the Conservative candidate in the head-to-head. Can polling be trusted? Who knows. But if all else fails, the bookies are a good bet and at the moment they have Khan ahead, but not by as much.

The Conservative candidate is a multi-millionaire who refuses to buy a new suit; viewing those he inherited from his billionaire father to be sufficient, if a little ill-fitting. While he may make the female constituents in Richmond Park weak at the knees, Goldsmith has been criticised for the way he has begun the campaign and has been seen to give his opponent a key advantage.

Although he is known, by some, to be a keen environmentalist and campaigner – through his public opposition to Heathrow expansion as well as his former role as editor of The Ecologist, among other things – aside from this no one knows what he stands for. He has made a key error in allowing Sadiq Khan to seize the initiative on housing which will be the most important issue in the campaign over the next four months. What’s more, the environment sits at around 7th of the issues Londoners believe to be most important for the Mayor, so his environmental credentials alone won’t get him anywhere.

He has finally kicked off campaigning following the Christmas break, but he has given Khan a significant head start., On paper Sadiq Khan has it all. Born and bred a Londoner, the son of a bus driver who emigrated from Pakistan, a former high profile human rights lawyer and the first Muslim MP to attend Cabinet; indeed potentially the first Muslim Mayor of London. He has promised to be the most pro-business Mayor London has ever seen and has already set out strong proposals for improving conditions for Londoners in the housing market and has promised to freeze transport fares in his first term – most of us can get on board with this.

However, Labour’s man does have some weaknesses. Having been selected by the membership on the coat tails of Corbyn, many in the business community and the wider public are yet to be convinced of his pro-business credentials. This association is unlikely to help him and while he has worked to distance himself from Labour’s leader – after having publicly supported him – whether London will be as open to the idea of Corbynista politics, is unclear. What’s more, he has been criticised for changing his position, and appearing to not be as principled as he would like us to believe. One example is Heathrow, where he changed his position from being in favour to being against. How much Corbyn affects him and how much voters know or care about his changes in position remains to be seen.

Put simply, it is too early to tell. Despite the pollsters giving Khan a comfortable lead, there is a long way to go in the campaign and a lot will depend on whether Goldsmith can seize the initiative on key issues in the coming months to claw back some votes. It is worth noting that in 2012, months before the vote, our esteemed current Mayor was trailing Livingston by 6 points; this had converted into a 7 point lead for Boris by polling day.

I would also like to draw your attention to a study by the University of Exeter and the University of Iowa which found that, in nearly three quarters of close races, good looking candidates win. The reliable website for assessing the attractiveness of British politicians, sexymp.co.uk, consistently ranks Goldsmith in the top 10, whereas Khan currently sits at around the 340 mark. With the dramatic failure of the pollsters during the 2015 General Election, perhaps this is a more reliable indicator.

Will the Conservative’s election wizard – in the form of Lynton Crosby who is on Zac’s campaign – be able to make it three out of three? Will voters embrace Khan for his humble roots and his solid London credentials or will the association with Corbyn be all too much? Will Londoners be able to look past Goldsmith’s posh roots and his pots of cash? Only time will tell.