The EU Referendum – how does it affect you?

The date has now been set, the Prime Minister has returned ‘triumphant’ from Brussels, Tory divisions are becoming clearer by the day and Corbyn has turned up (almost)!

Over the next four months, we will hear little else from politicians than the pros and cons of leaving. Contradictory and confusing statistics will be flying at us from both sides. And the pollsters will be out in force; trying to make amends for their unfortunate performance in the 2015 General Election.

The problem is that much of the debate will be based on scare-mongering, unsubstantiated claims and misinformation. For us it will be challenging to cut through the tide of information, to understand the reality.

But, while there are infinite and complex issues at play, it’s a simple choice: do we want to continue as part of the biggest political union in the world, working towards common goals and seeking to achieve more collectively; or do we want to stride out into the world alone with more control over our own destiny?

It is not about whether the UK would survive outside of the EU, of course we would. Brexit campaigner’s arguments do stand, there is little doubt that the EU would need to continue to trade with us and we would be more than likely to get favourable deals.

It is unlikely that leaving the EU would lead to 3 million job losses – as has been suggested – but agreeing a deal would take time and it is extremely improbable that we would have as good an arrangement as we do now.

We would be freer to trade with states outside of the EU, but we are not prevented from doing this now. Yes, we could more easily agree bilateral deals, but our largest trading partner is the EU and we have strong trading partnerships outside of the EU; despite the fact we are a member. To give you an example, Britain more than doubled exports to China since 2010 and is now the second biggest European exporter to the country – second only to Germany – with Chinese investment in the UK increasing by 70%, on average, in each of the last three years.

Immigration

(Image: One Europe)

This is the biggest issue for much of the electorate, but is this a red herring? Much of the concern on immigration relates to those coming from outside the EU, which has been brought into sharp focus by the ongoing migration crisis. But, we already have full control over this; with some 20 miles of cold water separating us from the continent.

In terms of EU immigration, this cannot be completely stopped, even if we leave. Businesses need to move their people freely across Europe and if they are not able to do so, this will have a significant impact on inward investment. Companies will think twice about spending in the UK, about building factories, and about basing their R&D facilities here, if they do not have access to the European labour market and if they cannot move their employees freely.

Not to mention the fact that it would be entirely impractical and unrealistic to implement a visa system – no more last minute trips on the Eurostar!

So the reality is, if we leave, we would need to have some level of free movement. As a condition of the free market, it is entirely possible that the UK has to agree to allow free movement. It is important to consider the fact that if we opt for Brexit, the EU will not be inclined to make this easy for us. The last thing they want is for other states to be encouraged to follow suit. Trade and the free market is the big – and most important – prize, so compromise on immigration may be necessary.

And this ignores the fact that we need EU migrants to fuel our economy; we rely on the EU’s workforce and tax revenue from EU migrants to fund our public services.

Security is another factor that is central to the arguments on the EU, with both sides claiming our security would be at risk. In a world of more sophisticated and extreme threats against our security, ranging from lone wolf terrorists and ISIS to the aggression of Russia and a potentially nuclear North Korea, cooperation across the EU is essential to our safety. Again, we would absolutely continue to cooperate with EU member states, share information and intelligence gathering assets, but do we do this better from within the EU?

Sovereignty is the final major issue at play in the debate. This is crucial, and an area where many have enormous sympathy for the position of those who want to leave. It’s true that our influence in Brussels isn’t as strong as the influence we would have over ‘our laws’ if they were all made in Westminster.

But this entirely misses the fact that the world has changed: globalisation means our national fortunes are intrinsically linked to other countries and the area that has the greatest impact on us is the EU.

This will still be the case even if we leave. We could be in a position where we have to adopt up to three quarters of the laws made in the EU – as is the case of Norway – or at the very least we would have no control over policies and laws which could have major implications for our environment, our financial services industry, our import and export markets and our security, to name but a few.

And while we are on the subject of sovereignty, there is a very real risk that if the UK does leave the EU, this will lead to a break-up of the UK, with Scotland’s First Minister warning that this will trigger another referendum.

This is the crux of the argument, and for me the most salient point: yes we can and will survive outside of the EU, but can we afford to walk away from unrestricted access to the biggest commercial market in the world, and can we afford to leave decision-making structures of an organisation that has such a vast impact on us?

There is so much that is infuriating about the EU: the fact that there are two parliaments and that once a month the whole of Brussels decamps and literally takes the ‘gravy train’ to Strasbourg; the fact that no one knows who their MEP is; that much of the laws are devised by bureaucrats; and that the EU is so spectacularly failing on the migrant crisis; among many others.

But, whether we like it or not, the EU is an organisation that has an enormous influence on us and our future. If we leave we will lose any sway over its direction and laws, and risk the enormous benefits that we receive. We cannot afford to take a step backwards, we can achieve so much more as a member of the EU and we cannot change the things we don’t like about it if we do not even bother to show up.